World Bank Lifts Uzbekistan Growth Forecast as Central Asia Outperforms Slowing Global Economy

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 6.4 percent for 2026, bucking a broad global trend of downward revisions, according to the institution's flagship June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released this week.

The upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the bank's January projection makes Uzbekistan one of the few economies in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region — and globally — to receive an upgraded growth outlook at a time when a conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted energy markets and weighed on the world economy.

Uzbekistan's growth trajectory remains among the strongest in the region: the economy is estimated to have expanded 7.7 percent in 2025, and the bank projects it will maintain robust momentum of 6.7 percent in 2027 and 6.8 percent in 2028.

The broader Central Asia subregion, which includes Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, is forecast to grow 5.2 percent in 2026 — down from an estimated 7.1 percent in 2025 but still well above the ECA regional average of 2.1 percent, itself a deceleration from 2.5 percent in 2025.

Global growth, the bank said, is projected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, the weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, as the conflict in the Middle East drives up energy prices, reignites inflation, and forces central banks to delay monetary easing. The Brent crude oil price is forecast to average $94 per barrel this year, more than 50 percent above the bank's January projection.

The report noted that most ECA economies are net energy importers facing headwinds from higher commodity prices, tighter financial conditions, and softer external demand, particularly from the euro area. Uzbekistan, as part of the Central Asia subgroup, has so far demonstrated stronger resilience.

The bank flagged that remittance inflows into Central Asia — which surged after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and have supported household consumption across the subregion — are expected to stabilize as growth in Russia remains subdued.

Risks to the outlook across the region are skewed to the downside, the bank warned, citing the possibility of prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East, a sharper-than-anticipated tightening of global financial conditions, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.

Despite elevated global turbulence, Uzbekistan's fundamentals appear comparatively robust. The bank's forecast implies the country will sustain per capita income growth well above the ECA average throughout the forecast horizon, reinforcing its status as one of the fastest-growing economies in the former Soviet space.

The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report is published twice annually and covers forecasts for more than 150 economies. Data for the June 2026 edition were finalized on 2 June 2026.