Uzbekistan Eyes 70% Jump in Russian Gas Imports to 11 BCM

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan in Talks to Nearly Double Russian Gas Imports as Central Asia Energy Realignment Accelerates

Uzbekistan is negotiating a dramatic expansion of Russian natural gas imports that could push volumes to 11 billion cubic meters — roughly 70% above 2025 levels — with Kazakhstan confirming its pipeline infrastructure stands ready to facilitate the increase.

The disclosure came from Kazakhstani Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, cited by TASS, who confirmed Astana's willingness to expand transit of Russian gas southward to Uzbekistan, while noting that final volumes hinge on the condition of existing transport infrastructure.

"On the Kazakhstani side, everything is ready for this. As far as I know, the Russian side is conducting its own negotiations with Uzbekistan. As a transit country, we are ready to ensure the transportation," Akkenzhenov said.

Moscow's position:

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has separately confirmed that Moscow is in active talks with both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan on expanding gas infrastructure and increasing supply volumes. Novak indicated discussions include the modernization of Soviet-era pipeline systems — aging infrastructure whose rehabilitation would be a prerequisite for any significant volume increase.

The negotiations gained additional momentum at SPIEF-2026, where Uzbekistan's representatives held energy talks with Russian counterparts covering gas supply expansion alongside oil and petroleum product cooperation.

The numbers in context:

Uzbekistan's gas import bill from Russia and Turkmenistan combined reached $1.65 billion in 2025 — a 1.2% decline in value terms according to the National Statistics Committee — even as physical volumes of Russian gas deliveries grew year-on-year. The divergence between value and volume reflects pricing dynamics rather than reduced dependency.

An expansion to 11 billion cubic meters would represent a structural shift in Uzbekistan's energy posture — deepening reliance on Russian supply at a moment when Central Asian states are simultaneously courting Western and Chinese energy investment. For Tashkent, the calculus appears pragmatic: domestic gas production has struggled to keep pace with consumption growth driven by industrial expansion and population increases, making import dependency a near-term necessity regardless of longer-term diversification ambitions.

Infrastructure constraints remain the critical variable. Both Novak and Akkenzhenov's framing — emphasizing readiness contingent on pipeline condition — suggests that capital investment in transit and delivery systems will need to precede any volume ramp-up at the scale being discussed.