Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — In 2024, Uzbekistan expects to receive cross-border remittances amounting to US$14.5–15 billion. This forecast was presented as part of the baseline scenario of the conceptual project for the monetary policy of the Central Bank for 2025 and the 2026-2027 period.

According to the Central Bank's forecast, the volume of remittances is expected to increase by 25–30% next year.

For 2025–2027, under the main scenario, the Central Bank forecasts further growth in remittance volume by 10–15%, reaching US$20 billion.

The regulator also anticipates an increase in the diversification of countries in migration flows, as well as a rise in the share of remittances from high-income countries, which will positively impact the overall volume of remittances.

The alternative scenario takes into account the possible intensification of sanctions pressure, which may lead to a significant depreciation of the ruble. On one hand, this will reduce remittance inflows from labor migrants working in Russia, and on the other, it will increase imported inflation due to the higher costs of imported goods and services in Uzbekistan's domestic market.

Under the alternative scenario, a 7–10% decrease in remittance volume is forecasted for 2025. However, in 2026-2027, remittances are expected to grow by 7–11%, which will be close to the fundamental forecast.