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World 19/10/2020 Three authoritarian leaders and their battle for the Middle East
Three authoritarian leaders and their battle for the Middle East

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- V. Putin, R. Erdogan and M. Salman have a lot in common. The leaders of Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have regional ambitions. And all of them are at risk and inclination to use military force. Their interests often contradict each other, which contributes to the incitement of conflicts over the expansion of their sphere of influence in the territory stretching from the Middle East to North Africa and the Caucasus. If their rivalry gets out of hand, civilians will suffer, according to the Financial Times (UK).

Today these leaders have managed to reconcile their antagonism. Russia and Turkey are considered adversaries in the Syrian conflict. However, their most important interests are compatible. According to R. Erdogan, this will put an end to the creation of a secure Kurdish state in Syria. For Russia, this prevents the fall of the President of tSyria, B. Assad. However, such carefully balanced plans can easily get out of hand. After two weeks of fighting, the Russians agreed to a ceasefire in the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the world is fragile, fighting continues, and while Ankara fully supports Baku, the Kremlin has a defense pact with Yerevan. It is unlikely that Moscow will allow the expansion of Turkish influence in the territory of the post-Soviet space.

The top three can also strike a delicate balance between foreign intervention and domestic stability. V.Putin’s popularity rose sharply after his success in Crimea. However, as the economy grapples with the pandemic crisis, there has been renewed popular discontent.

R. Erdogan is facing a similar compromise. Turkey’s military adventures bolster its popularity at a time of economic weakness. There, however, minor conflicts abroad can be seen as a waste of resources, especially if they start to go wrong.

M. Salman faces the same dilemma. His decision to launch a military operation in Yemen worried the Saudis. Today, M. Salman is unable to win the Yemeni conflict, and the economy of the KSA is facing a crisis due to low oil prices.

As their economies grapple with adversity, these three leaders will be able to demonstrate their strength abroad more than ever. Under the current conditions, the danger of collisions between them is increasing.

 

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