Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — As of 7 November, the exchange rate of the Uzbek soum against the US dollar has shown minimal change over the past week, with the dollar still trading at 12,775 soums. The soum’s fluctuations during these trading days were moderate, indicating its effective resilience to external influences and stability—a promising sign for the economy.

Interestingly, despite its generally close correlation with the Russian ruble, the soum has remained unaffected by the ruble’s recent movements.

From a fundamental perspective, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade balance remains a challenge for the soum’s long-term stability. While this factor is priced in over the long run, it may still have an impact.

At the end of October, Uzbekistan’s Central Bank maintained its interest rate at 13.5% per annum, unchanged since July. The bank is closely monitoring inflation risks, which may indicate potential local price pressures.

It’s likely that the Central Bank will keep the interest rate at this level through the end of the year. However, easing may accelerate in the first quarter of 2025 if macroeconomic conditions are favorable.

Short-term forecasts for the USD/UZS pair suggest it will remain within the 12,750–12,830 range.

Anna Bodrova,

Alpari Analyst