Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) – On 25 August 2020, a government meeting was held under the chairmanship of Prime Minister A. Mamin, during which the forecast of socio-economic development of Kazakhstan for 2021-2025 was considered.

According to the Minister of Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan R. Dalenov, under the baseline scenario, real GDP growth in 2021 is projected at 2.8%, and in 2025 it will reach 4.6%. Nominal GDP in 2021 will amount to US$182 billion (in 2025 - US$249 billion). Inflation is forecasted in the 4-6% band. Trade turnover in 2021 will make up US$78 billion (in 2025 - US$89 billion).

At the same time, on 23 August, Fitch Ratings confirmed the rating of Kazakhstan at “BBB” - “stable”. According to the agency’s forecasts, the fall in the country’s GDP in the current year. will be 2%, and the inflation rate - 9%.

According to experts, the key factors of the socio-economic development of Kazakhstan are:

- First. Diversification of the country’s economy. At present, the economy remains highly dependent on the export of energy resources (in the structure of exports, oil and oil products occupy about 60%). In view of the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus, it is possible that oil prices will decline in the medium term, which will negatively affect the country’s forecast indicators. In this regard, experts consider it important to carry out structural reforms in order to increase the productivity of other sectors of the economy;

- Second. Improving the investment and business climate. The inflow of foreign direct investment into the economy of Kazakhstan is decreasing every year (from 2014 to 2019, the volume of net FDI inflows decreased by 63% - from US$8.5 billion to US$3.1 billion). To improve the situation, experts suggest: 1) strengthening control over the implementation of investment legislation in the implementation of strategic projects; 2) introduce a mechanism for reimbursing the investor’s costs for the provision of engineering infrastructure for significant projects.

In general, the achievement of the forecasted indicators is possible only if the authorities of Kazakhstan implement cardinal reforms in the basic sectors of the economy. However, the implementation of reforms will complicate the strong dependence of the country’s economy on external conditions, which may make it difficult for the budget to receive sufficient funds to ensure a stable socio-economic situation in the country.