Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- As of 30 May, the exchange rate of the American dollar paired with the Uzbek soum dropped to 12,610 soums. This means that the sum increased by 0.71% over the week.

If three weeks earlier we observed a reduction in volatility in the dollar/soums pair, now there is reason to talk about the expansion of this phenomenon. The situation is developing in favor of the sum, including due to the noticeable strengthening of the Russian ruble. There is a tight correlation between currencies. A strong ruble perfectly supports the position of the soum.

The demand of importing companies for foreign currency in the domestic market looks restrained. Most likely, the export business has brought sufficient liquidity to the floor this tax season to meet the demand for foreign currency. This is a positive signal for the sum.

At the same time, the position of the foreign trade balance remains a long-term risk for the soum.

Expectations regarding fluctuations in the dollar/soum pair are becoming more positive and suggest movement within the range of 12,600-12,650 soums in the coming week.

Anna Bodrova,
Alpari analyst