Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Uzbek soum continues its gradual decline against the U.S. dollar, confirming its relative weakness. As of 24 October, the dollar trades at 12,822 soums. Over the past week, the soum has decreased by 0.17%, an acceleration from the previous week’s 0.04% drop.

This weakness in the soum is likely directly linked to the recent rapid devaluation of the Russian ruble. In this case, the correlation between the soum and the ruble took effect with a slight delay. This reaction is normal and aligns with typical market behavior.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that the soum’s exposure to geopolitical risks is highly mitigated. As a result, we don’t see any sharp market reactions or sudden shifts in sentiment for its exchange rate.

From a fundamental perspective, Uzbekistan’s external trade balance remains a risk factor for the soum, but these risks have largely been priced in.

According to the World Bank report, Uzbekistan ranked among the three most dynamically growing economies in Europe and Central Asia in 2024. Private consumption is the main economic driver, supported by wage indexing, government benefits, and lower inflationary pressures, all of which are highly relevant to Uzbekistan. This year, Uzbekistan’s GDP could rise by 4.6-5.0%, and next year by 5.5-5.8%, positioning the country as a leader in regional economic growth.

Short-term expectations for the dollar/soum pair suggest possible fluctuations within the range of 12,800-12,865.

Anna Bodrova,

Analyst at Alpari