Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) assessed price changes in the secondary car market. Experts compared prices for July-October 2020-2021.

To analyze the secondary car market in Uzbekistan, the Web Scraping method was applied using machine learning methods, in which a computer program extracts data from the original data created by another program. Data cleansing occurs when an application is used to retrieve information from a website. The most common uses for web scraping include data collection, price monitoring and comparison, market research, and product analysis.

According to the State Statistics Committee, in Uzbekistan last year the number of cars increased by 14.5%. On average, there are 50 cars for every 100 families.

The domestic brand UzAvto remains the leader of the secondary car market. In July-October 2021, cars of this brand occupied 67.7% of the used car market. The second place is taken by the VAZ brand (LADA), which accounts for 15.3% of the secondary car market.

As of 1 January 2021, the number of vehicles owned by individuals in Uzbekistan reached 2,955,295, against 2,109,185 in 2015.

The experts examined how global and national trends influenced prices in the secondary car market in Uzbekistan. E-commerce sites and trading platforms of Uznet became the source of the obtained data. As a result, data were collected on 20 thousand vehicles. All vehicles were divided according to the following parameters: price, model, year of manufacture, etc. The primary data were cleared of contradictory points that did not affect the overall structure of the database, after which the number of observations remained at the level of more than 10 thousand. comparative analysis of prices for cars in the secondary market for the period from July to October 2020-2021.

In 2021, compared to 2020, despite the factor of obsolescence by a year, prices for some national car models have slightly increased in price. So, if in 2020 for the second position of the 2019 Chevrolet Cobalt they offered US$9,600, then in 2021 the offer price increased to the level of US$10,200.

The analysis showed that prices for all items of Chevrolet Cobalt increased by an average of 4%, Chevrolet Spark by 4%, Chevrolet Lacetti by 2% (Fig. 3).

At the same time, Chevrolet Captiva became cheaper by 5%, Chevrolet Matiz by 2%, Chevrolet Damas by 2%, Labo by 10%. Russian imported cars also fell slightly in price: Lada Vesta by 2% and Lada Largus by 2% (Fig. 3).

When comparing prices for relatively new cars (the reporting year of production), it turned out that prices rose significantly in 2021. So, if in 2020 for a Chevrolet Cobalt of the second position of the same year of production were offered for US$10,000, then in 2021 the price of the offer of a car of 2021 production increased to US$11,200.

Prices for all items of Chevrolet Cobalt went up by 12%, Chevrolet Spark by 5%, Chevrolet Lacetti by 7%, Chevrolet Malibu by 18%, Chevrolet Tracker by 14%. At the same time, prices for Damas and Labo remained almost unchanged. A significant increase in prices was observed mainly for the middle car positions (second and third positions).

A sharp jump in prices in the secondary car market may be associated with a slowdown in the production of new domestic cars, which, with a constant level of demand growth, led to the activation of the secondary market.

In its plant, UzAuto Motors was closed from mid-July to the end of August this year due to the ongoing modernization. In addition, due to the global shortage of semiconductors, the production of Chevrolet Lacetti and Chevrolet Spark vehicles has also been suspended. The company has now resumed production of all popular car models.

The analysis also showed a significant increase in the cost of imported cars: Lada Vesta by 27% and Lada Niva by 44%, which is associated with an increase in prices for new cars of Russian origin.

Analysts point out that according to the results of last year’s study of the auto aftermarket, based on the econometric modeling method, one-year wear and tear of a car led to a decrease in its value by an average of about US$300-400. At the same time, due to the ongoing pandemic and caused by the global shortage of microchips and the rupture of global supply chains, the supply curve has shifted to the left.