The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) must engage more actively in maintaining regional security, says an article by Kyrgyz political scientist Aleksandr Knyazev, which was published in a Tajik weekly. Knyazev said the SCO could help Afghanistan in its fight against the drugs trade, given "inability" of the US-led coalition forces to stem drug production in the country. The pundit also suggested bringing Iran into the organization’s fold on a condition that Tehran’s nuclear programme was overseen by the SCO for its compliance with international norms. The following is the text of Knyazev’s article, entitled "Invitation to dialogue, the SCO tells the West", published in the independent Tajik weekly Biznes i Politika on 30 August; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

The BiP [Biznes i Politika] editorial staff have turned to its frequent author, political scientist, Prof Aleksandr Knyazev, with a request to share his views on the final documents of the SCO [Shanghai Cooperation Organization; signed at the latest SCO summit in Bishkek].

SCO needs to focus on security

The SCO in its current condition somewhat reminds of our opposition in Kyrgyzstan. This means that we are in a situation where there is a stimulus for development against something or someone, but there are no distinct contours of some positive stimuli for the sake of what or whom.

There are intentions to create some productive orientation in the work of the SCO. At least, they are being constantly declared. But for the time being, these intentions look quite spontaneous, chaotic and not associated with certain structural beginnings. I have already spoken about this in public, and will say it one more time: I personally believe that it is absolutely unpromising for the SCO to overload itself with various functions in such spheres as economy, water problems and energy, let alone the creation of youth clubs, educational establishments and cultural centres. The interests of the two countries - Russia and China -which form the backbone of the SCO system are fairly varying. Therefore, it is necessary to develop relations primarily on those issues, where certain results are being attained and where there are obvious common interests. First of all, this is the field of security. This is where the SCO had started and where there is good potential.

Full responsibility for regional security

In principle, this topic was present quite notably at the latest [SCO] summit. The declaration contains such a line: "... [ellipsis as published] stability and security in Central Asia can be ensured, first of all, by the forces of regional countries on the basis of regional and international associations that have firmly established themselves in it". It [the declaration] is interesting because it basically sends a signal to the USA and NATO that the job of ensuring security in the region is something that needs to be done by the region itself.

It is the verification of the fact that, up till now, NATO and all the members of the so-called US-led international antiterrorist coalition have fully admitted their impotence. At present, the Afghans themselves are openly saying that the SCO must make efforts to actively engage in the resolution of the situation in Afghanistan or share this responsibility with NATO or even take it up entirely. Even though they do not suggest how this should be done, this idea is voiced by Afghan officials.

NATO presence in Afghanistan "destabilizing factor"

The current situation is such that it demands some concrete actions with regard to Afghanistan. Typically, any activity in relation to the issue of the pulling out of the American military base from Kyrgyzstan acquires a counter-reaction, the key leitmotif of which is the thesis of the reviving Taleban and the emergence of direct threats to the region’s security in case of the US troops’ withdrawal. The claims about the Taleban’s plans to "conquer" Central Asia and the entire post-Soviet territory do not stand up to any criticism. The Taleban’s military might has never been commensurate with the capabilities of the armed forces of Central Asian countries, despite all their weaknesses, and more importantly, given Russia’s possible involvement. Another thing is that the American and NATO military presence in Afghanistan is a destabilizing factor in itself. I am talking about the aspiration to impose a model of the democratic functioning of society and the state in Afghanistan the way the Americans see it. This sort of persistence in attempts to export democracy will result in a reverse effect. The significant part of Afghan society do not accept the alterations that are being introduced, and the public’s counter reaction to "democratic reforms" is supplemented with the general negative perception of both the [Afghan] government and its foreign allies.

Afghan drugs

History knows many examples of how none of the modernization models has succeeded in bringing society onto the path of progress. There can be various solutions to the Afghan problem, except for one solution, namely a military solution.

The production and smuggling of drugs is a real threat to security, and not only to the security of the region.

"Afghanistan proposes turning the fight against the drugs trade into one of the main priorities of the SCO. It is necessary to work out a real plan on the joint struggle against this phenomenon." This thesis, voiced by Afghan President Hamed Karzai during his speech to the SCO summit in Bishkek, means the acknowledgement of the inability of the notorious antiterrorist coalition to settle the drugs problem. This acknowledgement can be placed onto one line with the Bishkek declaration’s thesis on taking up responsibility for regional security. Then add up Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to hold an international conference under the aegis of the SCO and you will have a complete set of signs testifying to the beginning of a trend that will see the SCO making efforts to take the initiative on the Afghan problem into its own hands. I personally see only positive things in this trend. In my opinion, it will be more or less productive, if the region’s security is ensured by the countries which have a common border with it [presumably Afghanistan], or which are inside it [the region]. Unlike the USA, these are the issues of own survival for regional countries, Russia and China.

Afghan heroin is a rare exception in the USA. Afghan heroin is a problem of the Old World. The fact that 185 t [of opium] were produced under the Taleban’s rule in 2001, and that the year 2006 saw the production of 6,200 t of opium speaks for itself.

The UN is to publish a special report on this topic in September. In 2007, the [opium] production will supposedly grow by 15 per cent on the previous year’s figures. This problem is a matter of concern for Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, China and European countries. Afghan heroin is a problem for the Middle East and Maghreb, which has begun to be engulfed by this phenomenon, but not for America.

SCO’s role

I do not think that today one can say the world has got rid of bloc thinking.

[Passage omitted: Headlines on western papers on SCO summit]

This is happening despite the fact that the leaders of the SCO member states have never positioned this organization as something countering the USA, the West as a whole or NATO in military and political terms. Ever since the holding of the Bishkek summit in August 1999 - of the then "Shanghai five" - the organization has only been clearly declaring the unacceptability of a unipolar world order.

At the conference "Cooperation and integration projects for Central Asia: comparative analysis, opportunities and prospects" held in [the northern Tajik city of] Khujand in June this year, we, a large group of authoritative experts, noted that it would be impossible to achieve common integration in the region for as long as there were no healthy bilateral relations on economic, border, transport and other kinds of issues. First of all, positive bilateral relations must be established. The SCO is not an integration alliance. The SCO could successfully develop in that direction, within the framework of more or less the model which the CSCE [presumably the Council for Security and Cooperation in Europe] used to be before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

By 2010, China, India, Russia and Brazil will add up to their GDPs more than all the G7 countries altogether. By 2025, the GDPs of these four countries will be twice as much as that of the G7 countries. We are entering a world that will be dominated by East Asia. The relations between the superpowers of the near future will principally define the quality of this future. Essentially, for Eurasia the SCO has all the chances of becoming this very mechanism through which the distribution of future roles is going to happen. This is especially important against a background of the crisis the UN and the OSCE have long been going through. Having been created as a tool for dialogue in the conditions of "Cold War", these two institutions have been unable to find their places in the changing world. We have witnessed the marginalization of the issues which once prompted the creation of the CSCE/OSCE, namely the issue of security. The working out of appropriate rules of regional security for our region in the new geopolitical conditions - something like the 1976 Helsinki Pact - is what could be made the most important objective for the SCO. Perhaps, the alteration of the organization’s format could also result in a more or less positive influence on the atmosphere of bilateral relations among SCO member states, and on the issues which are virtually overloading the organization today. However, an aspiration to universality and commonality may ruin the great potential of this organization.

Iran

The resolution of the Iranian [nuclear] issue could become the beginning of the SCO’s transformation into a security organization. The Iranian issue is one of the issues which currently hinder the adoption of a decision on expanding the organization. Iran should be admitted to the SCO, but on a condition that its nuclear programmes are put under the control of the organization. This would make it possible to exercise the control of the Iranian nuclear programme without any confrontation and military threats. At least, such an attempt could be made. Iran is interested in the Chinese market, for which it is one of the main suppliers of energy resources. Iran is also keen that its relations with Russia develop positively, including in the field of nuclear energy. Iran is interested in the Central Asian market. In any case, Iran’s actions will be more predictable and controllable for the region’s countries. Such a scenario will be an objective alternative to what the West is currently trying to do about the Iranian nuclear issue through UN mechanisms. However, if such a decision proves productive, this will be a good lesson for the West and an invitation for further dialogue.