Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Experts from the Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies (IMRS) under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan have analyzed the dynamics of geographic diversification in the export of fresh fruit and vegetable products between 2019 and 2024.

The primary analytical tool used was the diversification index, defined as the inverse of the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), calculated using the formula (1 – HHI). According to the accepted classification, a score between 0.850 and 1.000 indicates a high level of diversification, 0.750 to 0.850 a medium level, and below 0.750 a low level.

The analysis revealed that throughout the six-year period, Uzbekistan maintained a medium level of geographic diversification in its fruit and vegetable exports. While the number of export destinations increased from 68 countries in 2019 to 73 in 2024, the export structure remained highly concentrated.

The share of the top five importing countries remained significantly high, ranging from 78.4% in 2019 to 83.8% in 2022. In 2024, these five markets accounted for 81.7% of total exports:

– Russia — 38.7%
– Pakistan — 13.5%
– Kazakhstan — 12.6%
– China — 8.9%
– Afghanistan — 8.0%

This composition highlights a continued dependence on a limited number of trade partners, despite the geographic expansion of export destinations.

Regionally, there were also gradual but modest shifts. The share of exports to CIS countries declined from 69.4% in 2019 to 57.7% in 2024, though the region remains the dominant market. At the same time, exports to the European Union saw a slight increase from 2.1% to 2.4% over the same period, indicating limited penetration into newer and more competitive markets.

Overall, despite positive trends and a broader export geography, the level of geographic diversification in Uzbekistan’s fresh fruit and vegetable exports remains limited.

The high concentration of exports to a handful of key markets continues to make the sector vulnerable to external economic shocks. Under these conditions, further development of export policy must focus not only on increasing the number of importing countries but also on redistributing export volumes toward new and promising markets.