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Economy 11/01/2008 China beats rivals to clinch C. Asia gas pipeline deal


The move is a major Chinese achievement, and a stunning defeat for Russia and a clutch of Western governments, all of whom are competing in the energy-rich Central Asia region.

But the Chinese plan is still far from secure, and it is bound to meet stiff opposition in the months to come.

Two subsidiaries of China’s National Petroleum Corporation - PetroChina and China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corp - will share the S$10.5 billion cost for constructing the planned pipeline.

Unlike most industrialised countries which rely on natural gas for up to a quarter of their energy needs, natural gas covers only 2.5 per cent of China’s current energy consumption.

But Beijing plans to diversify its energy mix by doubling gas deliveries to 5.3 per cent of all domestic needs in the next two years and Central Asia, with its vast reserves and proximity to the Chinese market, is ideally suited for this.

Yet the political hurdles were always huge.

Out of the three energy-rich countries of Central Asia, only Kazakhstan has a direct border with China. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan must obtain permission from other nations to deliver their gas to China. This fact alone meant that all previous pipeline projects remained pipe dreams.

More importantly, Russia - the old colonial power - is determined to keep its influence. And most of Central Asia’s energy infrastructure is still directly connected to Russia’s network.

Until recently, China tried to navigate around the problem through the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional structure which includes all the Central Asian states plus Russia. Beijing’s hope was that, within this body, energy resources could be shared. But nothing of the kind happened: the Chinese met stiff resistance from Moscow at every stage.

Nevertheless, the Chinese did get their breakthrough in Turkmenistan, which controls the fourth biggest world reserves of gas.

For decades, Turkmenistan’s veteran ruler Saparmurat Niyazov ran a bizarre regime which kept his nation isolated.

The man, who liked to be called Turkmenbashi - ’Leader of Turkmens’ - substituted ordinary education with the study of his own writings. He even renamed months of the year after members of his family. With no friends or allies, Turkmenistan remained under Russian control.

No longer: Mr Niyazov - who died suddenly in December 2006 - was replaced by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, and the country opened up.

The predictable scrum ensued, with diplomats from various nations rushing to conclude energy deals.

The US sent a strong team to Ashgabat, the capital. And the Europeans suddenly decided to embrace Central Asia after shunning the region for decades, on account of its human rights record.

Nobody knows for sure why China won the competition. ’It will take us a long time to figure this out,’ a dejected Western diplomat told The Straits Times.

The suspicion remains that while the US and the Europeans frequently mixed business proposals with lectures on human rights, China stuck to business alone, and offered additional inducements.

Either way, the Chinese project looks impressive. Beijing has secured the delivery of 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually, for the next 30 years. And the pipeline to carry this will be 1,818km long, passing through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - the biggest civilian project of its kind in decades.

But, despite the official optimism, China privately knows the contract could turn out to be a dead letter.

President Berdymukhammedov has a track record of promising the same gas to various customers. He has recently pledged 50 billion cubic metres of gas to Russia, and it has no chance of honouring the Chinese and Russian agreements at the same time.

Furthermore, the Russians are unlikely to give up easily not only because they are determined to fend off China from what they consider as their backyard, but also because Russia desperately needs Turkmen gas: without it, Moscow will not be able to honour its contracts with European customers.

So, the Chinese project may just be another twist in a furious cloak-and-dagger diplomatic fight over the region.

With one difference. In the past, Central Asian governments used to be passive bystanders. Now they are active participants and are becoming experts at playing off China against Russia.

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